Late Quaternary history of paleoseismic activity along the Hohhot Segmentof the Daqingshan piedmont faultin Hetao depression zone, North China

The Daqingshan Piedmont Fault (DPF) is one of the major active normal faults in the Hetao depression zone in the northern part of Ordos Block, North China. It extends in NEE direction along the Daqingshan piedmont zone in the eastern part of the depression, dipping to the south, for a length of 223 km. The fault formed in the Eocene and underwent strong movement during the Cenozoic time. Its vertical displacement amplitude has exceeded 2400 m since the Quaternary. The fault can be divided into 5 active segments. Paleoseismological studies were concentrated on its western part from Baotou to Tumdzuoqi whereas the Hohhot Segment to the east was scarcely studied. To fill this gap of knowlegde, the authors carried out in-depth study on the Daqingshan piedmont fault during recent years. Excavation of trenches at Kuisu, Ulanblang, and Bakouzi sites on the Hohhot Segment of the Daqingshan piedmont fault and study of geomorphic surfaces allow us to identify and date paleoearthquakes and to evaluate the completeness of paleoseismic activity history. This was done both for the individual sites and for the entire segment since the Late Quaternary using the «method for displacement confining» along the fault and «method for correlation between multiple trenches». In this paper we present the geological loggings of two trenches at Kuisu site, provide the evidence for 6 events since 19 ka BP and the cumulative displacement amount produced by them is around 7 m. But the cumulative displacement amount obtained from difference in heights of geomorphic surfaces is 5.??.5.5 m. Results of tests using the method of displacement confining show that the event sequence revealed at this site can be considered complete. The data supplemented with information obtained in the Ulanblang and Bakouzi trenches show that 7 paleoseismic events occurred on the Hohhot Fault Segment since 19 ka BP, i.e. they occurred at 18.75 ± 0.75 ka, 16.97 ± ± 0.96 ka, 14.65 ± 0.67 ka, 11.82 ± 0.69 ka, 9.45 ± 0.26 ka, 6.83 ± 0.26 ka, and 4.50 ± 0.23 ka BP, respectively, and the average recurrence interval is 2.375 ± 0.432 ka. These results basically reflects the history of paleoseismic activity on the fault segment in this period of time

Validation of seismic hazard curves using a calibrated 14 ka lacustrine record in the Eastern Alps, Austria.

Seismic hazard maps are crucial for earthquake mitigation and mostly rely on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). However, the practise and value of PSHA are under debate because objective testing procedures for seismic hazard maps are scarce. We present a lacustrine turbidite record revealing 44 earthquakes over the last ~ 14 ka and use it to test seismic hazard curves in southern Austria. We derive local seismic intensities for paleo-earthquakes by applying scaling relationships between the sedimentary imprint and seismic intensity of well-documented historical earthquakes. The last ~ 2.8 ka of the record agree with a Poissonian recurrence behaviour and therefore a constant hazard rate, which is the modelling choice for standard PSHA. The lacustrine data are consistent with the intensity-frequency relationship of the local seismic hazard curve, confirming the current PSHA approach for this part of Austria. On longer timescales, distinct phases of enhanced regional seismicity occurred, indicating a potential increase of seismic hazard after large earthquakes-a factor hitherto disregarded in the PSHA of the Eastern Alps. Our new method forms an independent procedure to test hazard maps in any setting where suitable lake systems are available

A New Approach to Constrain the Seismic Origin for Prehistoric Turbidites as Applied to the Dead Sea Basin

Acknowledgments The authors appreciate the editor Lucy Flesch for handling our manuscript, Stefano Vitale and Alina Polonia for constructive reviews. This research was supported by the University of Liege under Special Funds for Research, IPD‐STEMA Program (R.DIVE.0899‐J‐F‐G to Y. Lu), Austrian Science Fund (FWF: M 2817 to Y. Lu), the DESERVE Virtual Institute of the Helmholtz Association (to A. Agnon), the Israel Science Foundation (#1093/10 to R.Bookman and #1645/19 to S.Marco), and the ICDP.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Modelling earthquake rupture rates in fault systems for seismic hazard assessment: the Eastern Betics Shear Zone.

Earthquake surface fault ruptures can show very complex geometries and involve different faults simultaneously. Consequently, modern fault-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) need to account for such complexities in order to achieve more realistic modellings that treat fault systems as a whole and consider the occurrence of earthquake ruptures as aleatory uncertainties. We use SHERIFS, a recent approach of modelling annual rates of complex multi-fault ruptures, to obtain system-level magnitude-frequency distributions (MFDs) for the Eastern Betics Shear Zone (EBSZ, Spain) considering four fault rupture hypotheses. We then analyze the consistency of each scenario based on data from the earthquake catalogue and paleoseismic studies. The definition of the different rupture hypotheses was discussed within the frame of Fault2SHA ESC working group and critical fault input data is extracted from previous published studies. The four rupture hypotheses are defined as incremental scenarios based on fault geometry and kinematics, with lengths varying from minimal fault sections to a rupture of nearly the whole system. The results suggest that multi-fault ruptures involving lengths up to single to several whole faults are consistent with the annual rates from both the instrumental catalogue and paleoseismic record. The method does not allow to completely discard any hypothesis, but it allows to weight the different models in a logic tree for seismic hazard assessment. The approach is revealed as a practical tool for obtaining fault-system MFDs and as a useful tool for highlighting limitations and uncertainties in geological and paleoseismic data to be assessed. This study aims to constitute a step forward in the consideration of complex multi-fault ruptures for future seismic hazard assessments in the region

Jurassic earthquake sequence recorded by multiple generations of sand blows, Zion National Park, Utah

Earthquakes along convergent plate boundaries commonly occur in sequences that are complete within 1 yr, and may include 8–10 events strong enough to generate sand blows. Dune crossbeds within the Jurassic Navajo Sandstone of Utah (western United States) enclose intact and truncated sand blows, and the intrusive structures that fed them. We mapped the distribution of more than 800 soft-sediment dikes and pipes at two small sites. All water-escape structures intersect a single paleo-surface, and are limited to the upper portion of the underlying set of cross-strata and the lower portion of the overlying set. A small portion of one set of crossbeds that represents ~1 yr of dune migration encloses eight generations of eruptive events. We interpret these superimposed depositional and deformational structures as the record of a single shock-aftershock earthquake sequence. The completeness and temporal detail of this paleoseismic record are unique, and were made possible when sand blows repeatedly erupted onto lee slopes of migrating dunes. Similar records should be sought in modern dunefields with shallow water tables

Paleoearthquakes of the Past ~6000 Years at the Dead Mouse Site, West-Central Denali Fault at the Nenana River, Alaska

The Denali fault (DF) in south-central Alaska is a major right lateral strike-slip fault that parallels the Alaska Range for much of its length. This fault represents the largest seismogenic source for interior Alaska but due to its remote location and difficulty of access, a dearth of paleoearthquake (PEQ) information exists for this important feature. The fault system is over 1200 km in length and identification of paleoseismic sites that preserve more that 2-3 PEQs has proven challenging. In 2012 and 2015, we developed the ‘Dead Mouse’ site, which provides the first long PEQ record west of the 2002 rupture extent. This site is located on the west-central segment of the DF near the southernmost intersection of the Parks Highway and the Nenana River (63.45285, -148.80249). We hand-excavated three fault-perpendicular trenches and documented new evidence for six surface rupturing PEQs from deformation in the upper 2.5 m of stratigraphy. Evidence for these events include offset stratigraphy, filled fissures, upward fault terminations, and an angular unconformity. Radiocarbon constraints on earthquake timing are based upon OxCal sequence modeling, which reveals the following 2-σ age distributions; E1 to 440- 316 cal yr BP, E2 to 835-740 cal yr BP, E3 to 1387-1126 cal yr BP, E4 to 3790-3020 cal yr BP, E5 to 5161-4531 cal yr BP and E6 to 7264-4943 cal yr BP

Paleoseismology of a major crustal seismogenic source near Mexico City. The southern border of the Acambay Graben

The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt is an active continental volcanic arc related to subduction along the Middle America trench. It is characterized by intra-arc extension resulting into several major arc-parallel active fault systems and tectonic basins. The Acambay graben, one of the largest of these basins, is located near Mexico City, in the central part of this province. In 1912, a M 6.9 earthquake ruptured the surface along the northern border of the graben together with at least two other faults. In this paper, we analyze the paleoseismic history of the southern border of the Acambay Graben, with new observations made in one natural outcrop and four paleoseismological trenches excavated across branches of the Venta de Bravo Fault at the site where it overlaps with the Pastores Fault. We present evidence of at least two paleo-earthquakes that occurred between 12,190 +/- 175 and 5,822 +/- 87 cal year BP and between 647 +/- 77 and 250 cal year BP. On one of these branches, we estimate a minimum slip-rate value between 0.1 and 0.23 mm/year for the last 12 ka and a mean recurrence interval of 8.5 +/- 3 ka. By considering several likely rupture lengths along the Venta de Bravo and Pastores faults, we calculated a maximum possible magnitude of M-w 7.01 +/- 0.27. Finally, by correlating events recorded along different faults within the Acambay Graben, we discuss several possible rupture coalescent scenarios and related consequences for Mexico City

Advancing Time-Dependent Earthquake Risk Modelling

Catastrophe (CAT) risk models are commonly used in the (re)insurance industry and by public organizations to estimate potential losses due to natural hazards like earthquakes. Conventional earthquake risk modelling involves several significant modelling assumptions, which mainly neglect: (a) the interaction between adjacent faults; (b) the long-term elastic-rebound behaviour of faults; (c) the short-term hazard increase associated with aftershocks; and (d) the damage accumulation in building assets that results from the occurrence of multiple earthquakes in a short time window. Several recent earthquake events/sequences (e.g., 2010/2012 Canterbury earthquakes, New Zealand; 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes, USA; 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquakes) have emphasised the simplicity of these assumptions and the need for earthquake risk models to start accounting for the short-and long-term time-dependent characteristics of earthquake risk. This thesis introduces an end-to-end framework for time-dependent earthquake risk modelling that incorporates (a) advancements in long-term time-dependent fault and aftershock modelling in the hazard component of the risk modelling framework; and (b) vulnerability models that account for the damage accumulation due to multiple ground motions occurring in a short period of time. The long-term time-dependent fault model used incorporates the elastic-rebound motivated methodologies of the latest Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) and explicitly accounts for fault-interaction triggering between major known faults. The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is used to simulate aftershocks, representing the short-term hazard increase observed after large mainshocks. Damage-dependent fragility and vulnerability models are then used to account for damage accumulation. Sensitivity analyses of direct economic losses to these time dependencies are also conducted, providing valuable guidance on integrating time dependencies in earthquake risk modelling

Geological Criteria for Evaluating seismicity revisited: Forty Years of Paleoseismic Investigations and the Natural Record of Past Earthquakes

The identifi cation of individual past earthquakes and their characterization in time and space, as well as in magnitude, can be approached in many different ways with a large variety of methods and techniques, using a wide spectrum of objects and features. We revise the stratigraphic and geomorphic evidence currently used in the study of paleoseismicity, after more than three decades since the work by Allen (1975), which was arguably the fi rst critical overview in the fi eld of earthquake geology. Natural objects or geomarkers suitable for paleoseismic analyses are essentially preserved in the sediments, and in a broader sense, in the geologic record. Therefore, the study of these features requires the involvement of geoscientists, but very frequently it is a multidisciplinary effort. The constructed environment and heritage, which typically are the focus of archaeoseismology and macroseismology, here are left aside. The geomarkers suitable to paleoseismic assessment can be grouped based on their physical relation to the earthquake\u2019s causative fault. If directly associated with the fault surface rupture, these objects are known as direct or on-fault features (primary effects in the Environmental Seismic Intensity [ESI] 2007 scale). Conversely, those indicators not in direct contact with the fault plane are known as indirect or off-fault evidence (secondary effects in the ESI 2007 scale). This second class of evidence can be subdivided into three types or subclasses: type A, which encompasses seismically induced effects, including soft-sediment deformation (soil liquefaction, mud diapirism), mass movements (including slumps), broken (disturbed) speleothems, fallen precarious rocks, shattered basement rocks, and marks of degassing (pockmarks, mud volcanoes); type B, which consists of remobilized and redeposited sediments (turbidites, homogenites, and tsunamites) and transported rock fragments (erratic blocks); and type C, entailing regional markers of uplift or subsidence (such as reef tracts, microatolls, terrace risers, river channels, and in some cases progressive unconformities). The fi rst subclass of objects (type A) is generated by seismic shaking. The second subclass (type B) relates either to water bodies set in motion by the earthquake (for the sediments and erratic blocks) or to earthquake shaking; in a general way, they all relate to wave propagation through different materials. The third subclass (type C) is mostly related to the tectonic deformation itself and can range from local (next to the causative fault) to regional scale. The natural exposure of the paleoseismic objects\u2014which necessarily conditions the paleoseismic approach employed\u2014is largely controlled by the geodynamic setting. For instance, oceanic subduction zones are mostly submarine, while collisional settings tend to occur in continental environments. Divergent and wrenching margins may occur anywhere, in any marine, transitional, or continental environment. Despite the fact that most past subduction earthquakes have to be assessed through indirect evidence, paleoseismic analyses of this category of events have made dramatic progress recently, owing to the increasingly catastrophic impact that they have on human society